Latest Market Analysis and Outlook of Lithium Iron Phosphate in 2024

The market potential of China's new energy vehicle industry is enormous. Under the dual effects of policies and markets, China's new energy vehicle industry has gradually entered an explosive period of scale expansion and a period of comprehensive market-oriented expansion. The era of new energy vehicles, where a hundred flowers bloom and a hundred schools of thought contend, is already beginning. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. Ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years.

With the strengthening of technological iteration in packaging forms by China's leading power battery companies in recent years, especially the implementation and application of CTP technology and blade battery technology, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries has significantly increased, coupled with good performance in cost, safety, and other aspects. Driven by the large-scale application of popular car models such as Tesla and BYD, lithium iron phosphate has experienced rapid development.

According to preliminary research data on advanced lithium batteries, China's shipment of lithium iron phosphate materials reached 1.65 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 48%; The market share is 66.53%. On the one hand, there is a price advantage, and on the other hand, the rapid progress of fast charging technology has alleviated the anxiety of mileage. The future route of lithium iron phosphate series may continue to occupy a large market share.

It is expected that by 2025, in the field of power batteries, with the release of lithium iron models by mainstream global car companies, lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 43% of the market share; In the field of energy storage, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to occupy 85% of the market share in the future.

According to calculations by Founder Securities, it is conservatively estimated that the demand for lithium iron phosphate materials in the market will exceed 2 million tons in 2025. If we consider the increase in the proportion of new energy generation such as wind and solar power, combined with the demand for energy storage business, as well as other applications such as electric tools, ships, and two wheeled vehicles, the annual demand for lithium iron phosphate materials in the market is expected to reach 10 million tons by 2030.